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2024 Financial Outlook Key Takeaways

The EFBC recently held a finance seminar with the collaboration of our Strategic Partners and experts from Private Vista sharing their expert insights on the financial market landscape for 2024. This blog post will highlight the key takeaways from the seminar, providing an overview of the financial trends to expect in the coming year.

Key Takeaways:

  • Job growth is expected to slow further and the unemployment rate edge higher from its current 3.7% to 4%, although it remains near an all-time low.
  • The high level of government and corporate debt could potentially lead to a rise in interest rates. This situation does raise some concerns, as continued participation in these markets could lead to further increases in interest rates, due to the demand for investment capital.
  • In the next 5 years, corporate entities will need to refinance over 3 trillion dollars’ worth of debt that is currently at or below a 5% interest rate. This surge in demand for refinancing could further escalate interest rates. Given these circumstances, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will be able to intervene effectively in the short term, i.e., the next 6 to 7 weeks. For those seeking insights into future market trends, it’s essential to pay attention to the key market indicators, such as Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and academic growth figures. These indicators could provide valuable clues about the Federal Reserve’s potential actions.
  • Our experts predict that inflation will continue to decline toward the Fed’s target, likely settling between 2% and 2.5% by yearend.
  • Fed is expected to start cutting interest rates in 2024. The majority of these adjustments are set to occur in the period from March through to June. Following this, Fed will likely hold steady through the November election, after which a final cut is likely to occur.
  • Presidential Elections typically generate One thing that markets dislike: uncertainty. The year 2024 is not just an election year for the US, but for the world at large. With 40 national elections set to take place worldwide, which implies that the political landscape of nearly 40% of the world’s population and global GDP could potentially be reshaped. This is not merely a matter of national interest; the outcomes of these elections could have far-reaching implications for our economy, markets and us as consumers.
  • The financial markets historically experience a rollercoaster ride during election years, with highs and lows. However, once the election results are declared, the markets typically stabilize, regardless of which party wins.
  • Regardless of the election’s outcome, one certainty looms large: major changes in estate law are on the horizon. These changes, set to come into effect on January 1st, 2026, will need to be addressed by the incoming administration, be it Republican or Democratic.
  • 2024 holds much more than just elections. While our focus may be primarily on the Middle East due to the current situation, it is crucial to consider the importance of trade through these seas. Any disruption in these maritime routes could lead to inflation in the US, restricting the Federal Reserve’s ability to reduce rates.
  • The best time to get into the market is when you have money to invest for the long term. If you’re holding onto your cash with plans to invest in new machinery or product development, you’re in a good position. You can park your funds in a money market to earn slightly over 5%, with no risk of a downside. This strategy is especially beneficial for savers, business owners, and retirees who typically like to maintain a cash cushion.

The bottom line

During an election year, it’s common to witness a certain level of apprehension among business owners. This uncertainty often leads to a state of paralysis, where decisions are put on hold and proactive strategies are side-lined. However, it’s crucial to note that such inactivity could be detrimental to business growth. It’s essential to continue implementing innovative ideas and strategies, and to not deviate from the business models that have proven successful previously. It’s advisable to keep up with your regular business practices. Continue to model your financials, budget, and forecast as you normally would. The known is always more comfortable than the unknown. Therefore, use this as an opportunity to channel your energy positively. Keep doing what you’re good at and continue with your business as usual wish a positive mindset.

***Please note that these are only predictions and should be used as a guide rather than a definitive forecast. Always consult with a financial advisor for personalized advice.

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